ESPAS – at the heart of EU foresight
About ESPAS
The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is an inter-institutional EU process promoting foresight and anticipatory governance. It brings together nine EU institutions and bodies who are committed to thinking longer term about the challenges and opportunities facing Europe and, through foresight, to support policy-makers to make the right policy choices.
We live in an era of rapid and sometimes frightening change, and of growing complexity and uncertainty. Stability, prosperity and democracy are no longer a given. To meet the expectations of citizens and communities, responsible governance is necessary to help prepare better for the future, mitigate major risks and build up capabilities. This is where strategic foresight comes into its own.
In times of increasingly rapid change, growing complexity and critical uncertainty, responsible anticipatory governance is vital to preparing for the unexpected. Strategic Foresight is required whenever there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding changes to the relevant future context. By mainstreaming foresight techniques and processes in policy-making, Europe can make informed choices about the future and the lives and well-being of its citizens.
In the decade or so since it was established, ESPAS has led the way in forging a new culture of foresight in the EU. Many ESPAS partner organisations have developed their own foresight capacity as they came to see the benefits of using this for better policy-making.
ESPAS is currently engaged in a number of exciting, forward-looking projects, drawing on the collective talent from amongst its members. These include:
- A major Global Trends Report, due for publication in 2024.
- A new horizon scanning project identifying 'weak signals' of change.
- A new international dialogue on foresight to compare analysis of global trends and their potential implications for policy-making.
- An Annual Conference bringing together political figures and experts from around the world.
- A 'Young Talent Network' to develop foresight literacy amongst young professionals in the EU.
- A series of Ideas Papers to stimulate discussion on the future across the policy spectrum.
- A 'European Foresight' podcast series (beginning in May 2023).
Enjoy browsing our website. For more information on ESPAS activities and foresight in the European Union, please contact us at ESPAS.Secretariat@europarl.europa.eu.
Foresight is much more about shaping the future than predicting it.
2022 ESPAS Annual Conference
"Geopolitics is back: Charting a course for
the EU in a world of shifts and shocks"
Thursday 17 and Friday 18 November 2022
The global financial crisis of 2008, the migration crisis in the early 2010s, the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, and Russia’s war on Ukraine, have all demonstrated very clearly how the world is increasingly being hit by multiple, overlapping crises with significant impacts both on Europe and the rest of the world. This has piled great pressure on policy makers in the European Union and globally, to react quickly to unprecedented and highly complex situations against a backdrop of great uncertainty.
How can policy makers make the best decisions in such a complex and uncertain environment?
Building resilience in the face of crises, while maintaining the capacity for being strategic, requires policy makers to have at their disposal, the capacity for holistic thinking, and for looking beyond the usual horizons.
Systemic thinking and foresight, with its capacity to foster collective intelligence, strategic understanding and long-term thinking, can also be instrumental in helping policy makers to reinforce their ability to “stay the course” for the long-term.
This tenth anniversary ESPAS Annual Conference sought to provide a strong, forward-looking perspective on key global challenges and how we can build a robust, sustainable future for the European Union. The Conference took place at a time when the phrase 'new era' seemed to be on everyone’s lips. But what does this mean? Does everybody have the same understanding of this 'new era'? The shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics demand from us a greater understanding of different global perspectives which, in turn, may enable the European Union to position itself at the heart of whatever global order emerges from today’s uncertainties.
Together with experts and policy makers from around the world, we explored the key challenges and opportunities which confront all of us. How are they changing the emerging international security architecture? Are we at the core of a new “battle of ideas”? What do they mean for strengthening a resilient democracy at home and around the world? What will the twin green and digital transitions look like? What will Russia’s war on Ukraine, climate change, and environmental degradation mean for food and energy supplies? How can we build a more sustainable and fairer global economy?
This Conference provided a platform for fostering the emergence of new ideas to feed a long-term vision for a strong and sustainable EU in a complex and uncertain world. Importantly, it supported the development of an international dimension for ESPAS (the 'ISPAS dialogue')* and helped to nurture new thinking and ideas for the 2024 ESPAS Global Trends Report.
*International Strategy and Policy Analysis System.
ESPAS Annual Conference, November 2022
"Geopolitics is back: Charting a course for the EU in a world of shifts and shocks"
In conversation The EU and NATO – working together for Europe's security
In conversation The world after the war in Ukraine
Transatlantic cooperation in the Indo - Pacific Can it counterbalance China's rising footprint.
Foresight publications
- EESC Opinion on 2022 European Commission Strategic Foresight Report - March 2023
- Council of the European Union General Secretariat: Forward Look 2023 - January 2023
- ESPAS Ideas Paper on Digital Cohesion - November 2022
- Global Semiconductor Trends and the Future of EU Chip Capabilities - October 2022
- ESPAS Ideas Paper on the Geopolitics of Health - July 2022
- Future Shocks 2022: Addressing risks and building capabilities for Europe in a contested world - April 2022
- European Commission Strategic Foresight Report 2022: 'Twinning the green and digital transition in the new geopolitical context'
- Joint Research Centre's Science for Policy Report: 'Towards a green and digital future. Key requirements for successful twin transitions in the European Union'
- ESPAS Ideas Paper on Populism - December 2021
- ESPAS Global Trends Mid-Term Report: The Global Future – An Update - November 2021
- European Commission 2021 Strategic foresight report : The EU’s capacity and freedom to act
- Joint Research Centre (JRC)’s Science for policy report : ‘Shaping & securing the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond’
- ESPAS report 2019 : Global Trends to 2030 - April 2019
About ESPAS
An Inter-institutional EU Project
The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is an inter-institutional EU process promoting foresight and anticipatory governance. It brings together nine EU institutions and bodies who are committed to thinking longer term about the challenges and opportunities facing Europe and, through foresight, to support policy-makers to make the right policy choices.
About ORBIS
The first global foresight hub
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